Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s End-of-2025 Rankings and Analysis for All Categories

Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s End-of-2025 Rankings and Analysis for All Categories

by Hollywood Reporter
4 minutes read

FYI Members of the Academy’s music branch chose 15 songs for this category’s shortlist from 65 options and will solely determine five nominees. That’s great news for songwriters who branch members have long known and loved, as demonstrated by past recognition — among them Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt, Ludwig Göransson, Stephen Schwartz, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and especially Diane Warren, who the branch is poised to recognize with her ninth consecutive — and 17th overall — nomination in this category.

Warren was shortlisted this year for a song (“Dear Me”) from a little-seen documentary (MasterClass’ Diane Warren: Relentless), the score of which the branch also shortlisted. Hers is but one of four shortlisted songs from docs: The others come from Come See Me in the Good Light (“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet”), Billy Idol Should Be Dead (“Dying to Live”) and Viva Verdi! (“Sweet Dreams of Joy”).

It will be interesting to see how the branch handles the two films that landed multiple songs on the shortlist this year: Sinners, with “I Lied to You” and “Last Time (I Seen the Sun),” and Wicked: For Good, with “The Girl in the Bubble” and “No Place Like Home.” At each of the last two Oscars, a single film — Barbie and Emilia Pérez — wound up with two songs among the final five, including the eventual winner. But vote-splitting is also a possibility, which begs the question: Is F1, which had three songs in the running for the shortlist, but got only one on the shortlist, “Drive,” actually in a better position to advance a song to the next round?

I’ll note that a bunch of the shortlisted tunes have been landing recognition elsewhere in recent days. The Society of Composers and Lyricists, which includes many music branch members, nominated six songs from dramatic or documentary films and six songs from comedy or musical films. Five of its six nominees for the former are also on the Oscar shortlist (“Dear Me,” “Drive,” “Last Time (I Seen the Sun),” “I Lied to You,” and “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet”), as are three of its nominees for the latter (“The Girl in the Bubble,” “No Place Like Home” and Oscar frontrunner/American Cinematheque’s Tribute to the Crafts song award honoree “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters).

Meanwhile, Critics Choice and Golden Globe noms went to “Golden,” “The Girl in the Bubble” and “I Lied to You,” plus “Train Dreams” (Train Dreams). The other Globe noms went to “No Place Like Home” and “Dream as One” (Avatar: Fire and Ash), while the other Critics Choice noms went to “Drive” and a song that did not make the Oscar shortlist (“Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee).

Lastly, I’ll just point out that there are a lot of big names who performed this year’s shortlisted songs in the films for which they are nominated — among them Sara Bareilles, Brandi Carlile, Billy Idol, Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Miley Cyrus, Ed Sheeran, Nine Inch Nails, Nick Cave and Ke$ha — as is the case almost every year, which is why I keep urging the Academy to rent out the Hollywood Bowl or the Greek for a night of performances of the shortlisted songs for members of the music branch, plus others. It would be one of the hottest tickets and coolest concerts of the year. Maybe in a couple of years, once the YouTube money kicks in, they will actually do this!

Frontrunners
1. “Golden” from KKPop Demon Hunters (Netflix) — EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick — listen
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Raphael Saadiq & Ludwig Göransson — listen
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (MasterClass) — Diane Warren (podcast) — listen
4. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — Miley Cyrus (podcast), Simon Franglen, Mark Ronson (podcast) & Andrew Wyatt — listen
5. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (Netflix) — Nick Cave & Bryce Dessner — listen

Major Threats
6. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (A24) — Aiyana-Lee Anderson & Nicole Daciana Anderson — listen
7. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Stephen Schwartz — listen
8. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me In the Good Light (Apple) — Sara Bareilles, Brandi Carlile & Andrea Gibson — listen
9. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Miles Caton, Ludwig Göransson & Alice Smith — listen
10. “Drive” from F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.) — John Mayer, Ed Sheeran (podcast) & Blake Slatkin — listen

Possibilities
11. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Stephen Schwartz — listen
12. “As Alive as You Need Me to Be” from Tron: Ares (Disney) — Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross — listen
13. “Dying to Live” from Billy Idol Should Be Dead (Fremantle) — Tommy English, Billy Idol, Joe Janiak, J. Ralph (podcast) & Steve Stevens (podcast) — listen
14. “Our Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (Focus) — Tom Basden — listen
15. “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi! (still seeking U.S. distribution) — Nicholas Pike — listen

Original Article on Hollywood Reporter

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