No. 10 Oklahoma (8-1) travels to No. 12 Baylor (9-0) in a primetime Big 12 matchup at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas, on Saturday. The game will be televised at 7:30 p.m. on ABC.
This the most visible game left on the Big 12 regular-season schedule, and a chance for both teams to stay in the College Football Playoff hunt.
Oklahoma leads the FBS with an offense that compiles 587.3 yards per game, and the Sooners are trying to win a fifth straight Big 12 title. They still have a chance to make a fourth CFP appearance, and the third under coach Lincoln Riley.
Baylor is trying to upset that under Matt Rhule. The Bears have won five games by eight points or fewer, and this is a chance to firm up a Big 12 championship berth. The Sooners and Bears have a lot on the line here. With that in mind, here’s everything you need for Saturday’s matchup:
Oklahoma vs. Baylor odds
Spread: Oklahoma -10
Point total: 67.5
Moneyline: Oklahoma-110, Baylor-110
Oklahoma is a 10-point favorite, according to odds at Sportsbook Review, and 52 percent of the wagering has come in favor of the Sooners.
Oklahoma vs. Baylor all-time series
Oklahoma has a commanding 25-3 leads in the series, and all three of the Bears’ victories have come in this decade. Baylor won back-to-back meetings in 2013-14.
Three trends to know
— The Sooners have won the last four meetings in the series by an average of 18 points per game. The matchups at McLane Stadium have been closer, with a combined score of 97-75 in the last two meetings.
— Oklahoma, however, is just 2-7-1 against the spread as a road favorite under Riley. The Sooners failed to cover on the road at Kansas and lost outright at Kansas State this season.
—The Bears are 4-2 against the spread as a home underdog under Rhule and 5-3 against the spread against ranked opponents. This is their biggest game in his three seasons with the Bears.
Three things to watch
Baylor and the turnover battle
The Bears have a plus-6 turnover ratio this season, which is the best in the Big 12. Baylor’s pass defense also allows 210.3 yards per game, almost a yard away from Oklahoma’s, at 209.4. Can Baylor steal a possession or two with an interception against a Sooners team that has created just six turnovers this season?
Jalen Hurts’ carries
With Trey Sermon lost for the season with a left knee injury, the Sooners must find a way to replace that production in the running game. Jalen Hurts had a season-high 22 carries in the 42-41 victory against Iowa State. Kennedy Brooks averaged 8.8 yards per carry last week and needs to get more touches. Look for Rhamondre Stevenson to get more involved in the running game.
Touchdowns over field goals
Oklahoma has scored touchdowns on 34 of 47 (72.3 percent) of its trips to the red zone, and the Bears have scored touchdowns on 25 of 39 (64.1 percent) of their visits. This is a game where teams can’t settle for field goals — especially Baylor.
Stat that matters
Baylor ranks 10th in the FBS in defensive passing efficiency, and has allowed just seven touchdown passes this season. That is an outstanding number considering the Big 12 competition, but now we will find out how that stands against Hurts and the tandem of CeeDee Lamb (44 catches, 983 yards, 13 touchdowns) and Charleston Rambo (27 catches, 574 yards, five touchdowns).
Oklahoma vs. Baylor prediction
Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewer’s steady play continues, and the Bears hold an early second-quarter lead after a pair of scoring drives. Oklahoma, however, adjusts around the running game of Hurts and Brooks. That opens the deep vertical passing game. It’s going to be a typical Big 12 shootout, but the Sooners pull away in the fourth quarter.
Oklahoma 42, Baylor 31