PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter‘s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
*BEST PICTURE*
Frontrunners
Belfast (Focus, Nov. 12, trailer) AFI*, CCA, HFPA, NBR
West Side Story (Disney, Dec. 10, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR
King Richard (Warner Bros., Nov. 19, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR
The Power of the Dog (Netflix, Nov. 17, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA
Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA, Nov. 26, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR
Dune (Warner Bros., Oct. 22, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR
Tick, Tick… Boom! (Netflix, Nov. 19, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA
Don’t Look Up (Netflix, Dec. 10, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR
CODA (Apple, Aug. 13, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA
The Lost Daughter (Netflix, Dec. 17, trailer) FI, IFP
Possibilities
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight, Dec. 17, trailer) AFI, CCA, NBR
C’mon C’mon (A24, Nov. 19, trailer) FI
Being the Ricardos (Amazon, Dec. 10, trailer)
House of Gucci (MGM/UA, Nov. 24, trailer)
A Hero (Amazon, Nov. 12, trailer)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple, Dec. 25, trailer) AFI, NBR
Summer of Soul (Searchlight, July 2, trailer)
Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus, Nov. 24, trailer) NYFCC
Longer Shots
The Hand of God (Netflix, Dec. 3, trailer)
Flee (Neon/Participant, Dec. 3, trailer)
Cyrano (MGM/UA, Dec. 31, trailer) HFPA
Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics, Dec. 24, trailer)
The Harder They Fall (Netflix, Oct. 22, trailer)
The Last Duel (Fox, Oct. 15, trailer) NBR
Red Rocket (A24, Dec. 10, trailer) NBR
Spencer (Neon, Nov. 5, trailer)
*BEST DIRECTOR*
Frontrunners
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast) CCA, HFPA
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Denis Villeneuve (Dune) CCA, HFPA
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) CCA, HFPA, NYFCC
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) CCA, NBR
Possibilities
Asghar Farhadi (A Hero) — podcast
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter) FI, HFPA, IFP
Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley) — podcast CCA
Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard)
Mike Mills (C’mon C’mon) FI
Paolo Sorrentino (The Hand of God)
Longer Shots
Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up) — podcast
Lin-Manuel Miranda (Tick, Tick … Boom!) — podcast
Aaron Sorkin (Being the Ricardos) — podcast
Pedro Almodóvar (Parallel Mothers) — podcast
Ridley Scott (House of Gucci) — podcast
*BEST ACTOR*
Frontrunners
Will Smith (King Richard) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NBR
Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … Boom!) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NYFCC
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Jude Hill (Belfast)
Possibilities
Nicolas Cage (Pig) — podcast CCA
Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) CCA, HFPA
Joaquin Phoenix (C’mon C’mon) IFP
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos) HFPA
Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up) HFPA
Clifton Collins, Jr. (Jockey) FI
Simon Rex (Red Rocket) — podcast IFP, FI
Longer Shots
Ansel Elgort (West Side Story)
Mahershala Ali (Swan Song) — podcast HFPA
Adam Driver (House of Gucci) — podcast
Oscar Isaac (The Card Counter) — podcast IFP
Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza) HFPA
Anthony Ramos (In the Heights) HFPA
Filippo Scotti (The Hand of God)
Frankie Faison (The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain) FI, IFP
*BEST ACTRESS*
Frontrunners
Kristen Stewart (Spencer) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NYFCC
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) — podcast CCA, HFPA, IFP
Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) HFPA, NBR
Possibilities
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza) CCA, HFPA
Emilia Jones (CODA)
Jennifer Hudson (Respect)
Tessa Thompson (Passing) IFP
Jennifer Lawrence (Don’t Look Up) — podcast HFPA
Longer Shots
Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Jodie Comer (The Last Duel)
Halle Berry (Bruised) — podcast
Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World)
Haley Bennett (Cyrano)
Marion Cotillard (Annette) HFPA
Emma Stone (Cruella) — podcast HFPA
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*
Frontrunners
Jamie Dornan (Belfast) CCA, HFPA
Ciaran Hinds (Belfast) CCA, HFPA, NBR
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) CCA, HFPA, NYFCC
Troy Kotsur (CODA) CCA, FI, HFPA, IFP
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
Possibilities
Jared Leto (House of Gucci) — podcast CCA
J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) CCA
Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) — podcast HFPA
Mike Faist (West Side Story)
Woody Norman (C’mon C’mon)
Longer Shots
Jonah Hill (Don’t Look Up)
David Alvarez (West Side Story)
Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza)
Jon Bernthal (King Richard)
Colman Domingo (Zola) FI, IFP
Robin de Jesus (Tick, Tick… Boom!)
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*
Frontrunners
Rita Moreno (West Side Story) — podcast CCA
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NBR
Caitriona Balfe (Belfast) CCA, HFPA
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) CCA, HFPA
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) CCA, HFPA
Possibilities
Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley) — podcast
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) FI, IFP
Ruth Negga (Passing) — podcast FI, HFPA, IFP
Gaby Hoffmann (C’mon C’mon) IFP
Saniyya Sidney (King Richard)
Judi Dench (Belfast) — podcast
Longer Shots
Kathryn Hunter (The Tragedy of Macbeth) NYFCC
Ann Dowd (Mass) CCA
Meryl Streep (Don’t Look Up) — podcast
Marlee Matlin (CODA) IFP
Nina Arianda (Being the Ricardos)
Dakota Johnson (The Lost Daughter) — podcast
*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*
Frontrunners
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion) CCA, HFPA
West Side Story (Tony Kushner) CCA
The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal) CCA, FI, IFP
Dune (Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve) CCA
CODA (Sian Heder) CCA
Possibilities
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Joel Coen) NBR
Nightmare Alley (Guillermo del Toro & Kim Morgan) — podcast (del Toro)
Passing (Rebecca Hall) IFP
Tick, Tick … Boom! (Steven Levenson)
Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe)
Longer Shots
House of Gucci (Roberto Bentivegna & Becky Johnston)
The Tender Bar (William Monahan)
In the Heights (Quiara Alegría Hudes)
Cyrano (Erica Schmidt)
The Many Saints of Newark (David Chase & Lawrence Konner) — podcast (Chase)
*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*
Frontrunners
Belfast (Kenneth Branagh) CCA, HFPA
King Richard (Zach Baylin) CCA
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson) CCA, HFPA, NYFCC
Being the Ricardos (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay & David Sirota) — podcast (McKay) CCA, HFPA
Possibilities
A Hero (Asghar Farhadi) — podcast NBR
C’mon Cmon (Mike Mills) FI
The Hand of God (Paolo Sorrentino)
Parallel Mothers (Pedro Almodóvar) — podcast
The Card Counter (Paul Schrader) IFP
Last Night in Soho (Krysty Wilson-Cairns & Edgar Wright)
Longer Shots
Spencer (Steven Knight)
The Harder They Fall (Jeymes Samuel & Boaz Yakin)
Red Rocket (Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch) — podcast (Baker) IFP
The French Dispatch (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola & Jason Schwartzman)
Zola (Janicza Bravo & Jeremy O. Harris) FI
Stillwater (Tom McCarthy) — podcast
*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*
Projected Shortlist
Summer of Soul (Searchlight) AFI*, CCA, CEH, FI, IDA, IFP, NBR, PGA
Flee (Neon/Participant) CCA, CEH, FI, IDA, IFP, NBR, NYFCC, PGA
Attica (Showtime) CCA, NBR
Ascension (MTV) CCA, CEH, FI, IFP, NBR, PGA
The Rescue (Nat Geo) CCA, CEH, NBR, PGA
The Velvet Underground (Apple) — podcast (Todd Haynes) CEH
The First Wave (Neon) — podcast (Matthew Heineman) PGA
Procession (Netflix) CCA, FI
The Sparks Brothers (Focus)
Simple As Water (HBO) PGA
Becoming Cousteau (Nat Geo) CCA
Billie Eilish: The World’s A Little Blurry (Apple)
Val (Amazon)
Julia (Sony Classics)
Francesco (Discovery+)
Possibilities
My Name Is Pauli Murray (Amazon) CCA
Found (Netflix)
Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain (Focus) NBR
Citizen Ashe (Magnolia)
Not Going Quietly (Greenwich)
Introducing, Selma Blair (Discovery+) CCA
Tom Petty: Somewhere You Feel Free (YouTube)
Rita Moreno: Just a Girl Who Decided to Go for It (Roadside)
Still to See or Cannot Comment Yet
45 Days: The Fight for a Nation (self-distributed)
Ailey (Neon)
All Light, Everywhere (Super LTD)
Apenas el sol (Nothing But the Sun) IDA
A Cop Movie (Netflix)
Bring Your Own Brigade (CBSN/Paramount)
The Crime of the Century (HBO) CCA
A Crime on the Bayou (Shout!) CCA
Fauci (Nat Geo)
Faya Dayi (Janus Films) CEH, IDA, IFP
Final Account (Focus)
Homeroom (Hulu)
In the Same Breath (HBO) FI, IDA, PGA
Jacinta (Hulu) IDA
The Last Forest (Gullane)
LFG (HBO Max)
The Lost Leonardo (Sony Classics) CCA
North by Current (still seeking U.S. distribution) IDA
President (Greenwich) IFP
The Real Charlie Chaplin (Showtime)
Rebel Hearts (Discovery+)
Stray (Magnolia)
Street Gang: How We Got to Sesame Street (HBO)
Who We Are (Sony Classics)
Wojnarowicz: F**k You F*ggot F**ker (Kino Lorber)
Writing with Fire (Music Box) IDA, PGA
*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*
Frontrunners
A Hero (Iran) — podcast (Asghar Farhadi) CCA, HFPA, NBR
The Hand of God (Italy) CCA, HFPA
The Worst Person in the World (Norway) CCA, IFP, NBR, NYFCC
Drive My Car (Japan) CCA, FI, HFPA, IFP
Flee (Denmark) CCA
Possibilities
Compartment No. 6 (Finland) FI, HFPA
Titane (France) IFP, NBR
Zatopek (Czech Republic)
Still to See
Brighton 4th (Georgia)
Casablanca Beats (Morocco)
A Cop Movie (Mexico)
Costa Brava, Lebanon (Lebanon)
Digger (Greece)
Do Not Hesitate (Netherlands)
Drunken Birds (Canada)
Escape from Mogadishu (South Korea)
The Falls (Taiwan)
The Good Boss (Spain)
Great Freedom (Austria)
Hive (Kosovo)
I’m Your Man (Germany)
Lamb (Iceland) NBR
Leave No Traces (Poland)
Let It Be Morning (Israel)
Lingui, The Sacred Bonds (Chad) NBR
Memoria (Colombia)
Oasis (Serbia)
Olga (Switzerland)
Pebbles (India) FI
Post Mortem (Hungary)
Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico) FI
Sumergible (Ecuador)
Unclenching the Fist (Russia)
White Building (Cambodia)
*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY*
Projected Nominees
West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski) CCA, NYFCC
Dune (Greig Fraser) CCA, CI
The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner) CCA
Belfast (Haris Zambarloukos) CCA
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel) CCA, CI, NBR
Possibilities
C’mon C’mon (Robbie Ryan) CI
Nightmare Alley (Dan Lausten) CCA
Passing (Edu Grau) FI
King Richard (Robert Elswit)
Tick, Tick… Boom! (Alice Brooks)
Being the Ricardos (Jeff Cronenweth)
Spencer (Claire Mithon)
Cyrano (Seamus McGarvey)
Titane (Ruben Impens)
Don’t Look Up (Linus Sandgren)
No Time to Die (Linus Sandgren)
Last Night in Soho (Chung-hoon Chung)
Drive My Car (Hidetoshi Shinomiya)
Longer Shots
The French Dispatch (Robert Yeoman)
The Last Duel (Dariusz Wolski)
House of Gucci (Dariusz Wolski)
Parallel Mothers (Jose Luis Alcaine)
The Lost Daughter (Helene Louvart)
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson & Michael Bauman)
The Harder They Fall (Mihai Malaimare Jr.)
Zola (Ari Wegner) FI
The Humans (Lol Crawley) FI
Swan Song (Masanobu Takaynagi)
*BEST ORIGINAL SCORE*
Projected Shortlist
Dune (Hans Zimmer) CCA, HFPA, HMMA
The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood) CCA, HFPA, HMMA
Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell) CCA, HMMA
King Richard (Kris Bowers) HMMA
The French Dispatch (Alexandre Desplat) HFPA, HMMA
Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias) HFPA, HMMA
The Last Duel (Harry Gregson-Williams) HMMA
Nightmare Alley (Nathan Johnson) CCA, HMMA
A Quiet Place Part II (Marco Beltrami) HMMA
C’mon C’mon (Aaron Dessner & Bryce Dessner) HMMA
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Carter Burwell) HMMA
The Harder They Fall (Jeymes Samuel)
Encanto (Germaine Franco) HFPA
Spencer (Jonny Greenwood) CCA
The Lost Daughter (Dickon Hinchliffe)
Possibilities
No Time to Die (Hans Zimmer) HMMA
Last Night in Soho (Steven Price) HMMA
The Addams Family 2 (Jeff Danna & Mychael Danna) HMMA
Stillwater (Mychael Danna) HMMA
CODA (Marius de Vries) HMMA
The Mitchells vs. the Machines (Mark Mothersbaugh) HMMA
Vivo (Alex Lacamoire) HMMA
Luca (Dan Romer) HMMA
The Suicide Squad (John Murphy) HMMA
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Joel P. West) HMMA
Cinderella (Mychael Danna & Jessica Rose Weiss) HMMA
Black Widow (Lorne Balfe) HMMA
The Green Knight (Daniel Hart) HMMA
The Card Counter (Robert Levon Been & Giancarlo Vulcano) HMMA
*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*
Projected Shortlist
“No Time to Die” — Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell (No Time to Die) CCA, HFPA, HMMA
“Be Alive” — Beyoncé Knowles-Carter & Darius Scott (King Richard) CCA, HFPA, HMMA
“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” — Jamie Alexander Hartman, Jennifer Hudson & Carole King (Respect) HFPA, HMMA
“Down to Joy” — Van Morrison (Belfast) HFPA, HMMA
“Guns Go Bang” — Jay-Z, Scott Mescudi [Kid Cudi] & Jeymes Samuel (The Harder They Fall) CCA, HMMA
“Just Look Up” — Nicholas Britell, Ariana Grande, Scott Mescudi [Kid Cudi] & Taura Stinson (Don’t Look Up) CCA, HMMA
“Dos Oruguitas” — Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto) — podcast CCA, HFPA
“So May We Start” — Ron Mael & Russell Mael (Annette)
“Your Song Saved My Life” — Bono, The Edge, Adam Clayton, Larry Mullen, Jr. (Sing 2) HMMA
“Beyond the Shore” — Nicholai Baxter, Matt Dahan, Sian Heder & Marius de Vries (CODA) HMMA
“Breathe” — Jon Batiste (The First Wave) HMMA
“Home All Summer” — Lin-Manuel Miranda (In the Heights) — podcast
“Fire in the Sky” — Anderson .Paak (Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings)
“Million to One” — Camila Cabello & Scott Harris (Cinderella)
“Somehow You Do” — Diane Warren (Four Good Days) — podcast HMMA
Possibilities
“My Father’s Daughter” — Glen Hansard, Cat Power & Eddie Vedder (Flag Day) HMMA
“Secret Sister” — Rufus Wainwright (Rebel Hearts) HMMA
“Every Letter” — Matt Berninger, Carin Besser, Aaron Dessner & Bryce Dessner [“The National”] (Cyrano) HMMA
“Somebody Desperate” — Matt Berninger, Carin Besser, Aaron Dessner & Bryce Dessner [“The National”] (Cyrano)
“Right Where I Belong” — Brian Wilson & Jim James (Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road) HMMA
“Inside Your Heart” — Lin-Manuel Miranda (Vivo) — podcast
“Keep the Beat” — Lin-Manuel Miranda (Vivo) — podcast
“My Own Drum” — Missy Elliott & Lin-Manuel Miranda (Vivo) — podcast
“Automatic Woman” — H.E.R. (Bruised) — podcast
“Believe” — Aloe Blacc & Daniel Pemberton (The Rescue)
“Good Mood” — Oscar Gorres, Savan Kotecha, Adam Levine & Karl Johan Schuster (PAW Patrol: The Movie) HMMA
“The Anonymous Ones” — Benj Pasek, Justin Paul & Amandla Stenberg (Dear Evan Hansen)
“(Never Gonna) Tame You” — Diane Warren (The Mustangs: America’s Wild Horses) — podcast HMMA
“Blome Swete Lilie Flour” — Daniel Hart (The Green Knight)
“Second Nature” — Bon Iver (Don’t Look Up)
“Crowd Go Crazy” — SZA & Saint JHN (Space Jam: A New Legacy)
“On My Way” — Alexandra Lahey, Sophie Louise Payten & Gabriel Strum (The Mitchells vs. the Machines) HMMA
“Call Me Cruella” — Florence + The Machine (Cruella)
“Lead the Way” — Jhene Aiko & James Newton Howard (Raya and the Last Dragon)
“Beautiful Life” — Michael Kiwanuka (Convergence: Courage in Crisis)
“Together We Stand” — Gary Barlow (The Boss Baby: Family Business) HMMA
“Chasing Dreams” — Goze & Tyler Strickland (Changing the Game)
“Beginning Middle End” — Leah Nobel & Quinn Redmond (To All the Boys: Always and Forever)
“Only One Way to Fly” — Jeremiah Fraites & Wesley Schultz [The Lumineers] (The Starling)
“Tu Draumst [To Dream]” — Tara Nome Doyle & Isobel Waller-Bridge (Munich: The Edge of War)
“Remain” — Saleka Night Shyamalan (Old)
“Because Love” — Laura Karpman & Rita Wilson (Love Is Love Is Love) HMMA
“After Our Dawn” — George Kallis, Castille Landon, Nicolas Farmakalidis, Ryan Steffes, George Slonos & Taylor Conrad (After We Fell) HMMA