Deontay Wilder (41-0-1, 40 KOs) looks to defend the WBC heavyweight championship for the tenth time as he meets Luis Ortiz (31-0, 26 KOs) in a highly anticipated rematch on Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.
Here’s a complete betting guide for Deontay Wilder vs. Luis Ortiz, including updated odds, trends and our prediction to win.
Deontay Wilder vs. Luis Ortiz 2 odds
Sportsbooks have installed Wilder as a sizable favorite, according to Sportsbook Review’s composite odds. Wilder is currently favored at -650, which means you’d need to wager $650 to win $100. Meanwhile, Ortiz is a +475 underdog, meaning you’d net $475 if you bet $100.
The logical theory is that oddsmakers are looking at how the Alabama native won the first fight.
Odds started for Wilder as high as a -700 favorite before going as low as -620 and rising back up and settling in at -650. Ortiz’s odds have stayed pretty consistent since initially being set. The odds started at +500 and then going as low as +460 before staying at +475.
Three trends to know
1. Wilder and Ortiz met in March 2018 with Wilder coming back after nearly getting knocked out on his feet in the seventh round to win via tenth-round TKO.
2. Since their first fight in March 2018, Wilder is 1-0-1. He went to a thrilling split draw with lineal heavyweight champion Tyson Fury in December and proceeded to notch a first-round knockout of Dominic Breazeale in May.
Ortiz has stayed active by competing three times and going 3-0 in the process. The Cuban defeated Răzvan Cojanu by second-round TKO in July 2018, Travis Kauffman via tenth-round TKO on the undercard of Wilder-Fury and capped off in March in beating Christian Hammer via unanimous decision.
3. Before he agreed to rematch Ortiz, Wilder already had another fight lined up as he’s scheduled to take on Fury in February 2020. But the 2008 Olympic gold medalist wanted to stay busy, and because of the special bond he and Ortiz share with their daughters having medical conditions.
Three things to watch
1. How each guy can look to correct the mistakes they made the first time around. For Wilder, will he be able to stay off the ropes because that’s when Ortiz did his best work, including almost upsetting the apple cart and pulling off the upset?
For Ortiz, continuing to pump the jab is imperative. At times, he’d throw a hard jab to send Wilder back and keep him at bay. When he didn’t throw it, that’s when Wilder was able to uncork the right hand.
2. Wilder has to get off to a quick start. Too often in fights, most notably in the first fight with Ortiz, Fury, Gerald Washington, and Artur Szpilka, Wilder’s come out too slow and fallen behind on the scorecards. Yes, he’s roared back with his once in a generation power with the vaunted right hand. But there will come a time where the right-hand doesn’t get the job done. Wilder said on Tuesday at his grand arrival that there’s more to him, and he has a vast array of boxing skills under the tutelage of former U.S. Olympic gold medalist Mark Breland. He showed a bit of it with the scintillating left hook that almost finished Fury in the 12th round.
3. Ortiz’s stamina will play a significant factor. Remember, Ortiz is 40 years of age. Typically, when a human being gets older, the gas tank isn’t what it used to be even five years ago. You could see in the first fight that Ortiz would too often go in spurts and then dance around the ring and regaining some of his energy.
And that’s when he was 38. Fast forward to now and his cardio isn’t going to magically get better 20 months later unless Ortiz’s magically found the fountain of youth.
Deontay Wilder vs. Luis Ortiz 2 pick, prediction
It’s hard to pick against Wilder in this situation. Look at what happened when they fought before. And the result shouldn’t change. Ortiz didn’t test himself against quality opposition to get him better prepared for what could be his last shot at glory.
If Ortiz is going to have any shot at pulling off the upset and causing an eruption in the heavyweight division, he’s going to have to come out fast and let Wilder know the first time was a fluke, and things are to be different.
However, that isn’t going to happen. There’s too much on the line for Wilder. He understands what’s at stake with a highly lucrative rematch with Fury is on the horizon along with a possible 2020 unification bout against the winner of the Dec. 7 rematch between Andy Ruiz. Jr. and Anthony Joshua.
The “Bronze Bomber” is going to come and look to make an example of Ortiz like he did when he blasted through Breazeale and his rematch with Bermane Stiverne in November 2017 in one round.
Place a few dollars on Ortiz as that number is high considering how skilled he is inside the with his extensive amateur pedigree of 400 amateur fights and how close he came the first time around. It’s boxing, and the big boys are fighting so anything can happen.
SN’s pick: Deontay Wilder by second-round knockout.
Best wager: Luis Ortiz (Sportsbook Review, +475)