When the Bills (8-3) travel to face the Cowboys in the second game of the NFL Thanksgiving schedule on Thursday (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS). Buffalo currently holds a wild-card playoff spot in the AFC, in second place behind New England in the NFC East. Dallas leads the NFC East by a game and a tiebreaker over Philadelphia.
The Bills are surging to a surprise postseason berth, but with a tough final month, need a win to strengthen their position. The Cowboys, clinging to another expected playoff trip, need a win against a winning team to create some cushion — and take coach Jason Garrett off the hot seat.
Here’s everything to know about betting on Cowboys vs. Bills in Week 13, including updated odds, trends and our expert’s prediction for the 2019 NFL Thanksgiving game.
Cowboys vs. Bills odds for Thanksgiving 2019
The Cowboys have been around a touchdown favorite despite losing a tough game at the Patriots and the Bills routing the Dolphins and Broncos in back-to-back weeks. They have yet to beat a team with a winning record this season. The Bills have only one such win, over the currently 6-5 Titans.
Cowboys vs. Bills all-time series
The Cowboys hold a 8-4 record and have won three of the past four meetings. The most notable of their matchups have come in the Super Bowl, two consecutive Dallas routs over Buffalo after the ’92 and ’93 seasons. When the Bils last played in Dallas in 2011, they lost 44-7.
Three trends to know
— 57 percent of spread bettors are taking the Bills to cover the big number. 60 percent of moneyline bettors are also liking the Bills.
— 62 percent of bettors like the total to go over. The Cowboys average 26.8 points per game, the Bills average 21.0 points per game.
— The total has gone over in only 3 of 11 Bills games. The Cowboys are 4-1 against the spread in their past five games.
Three things to watch
Dak vs. Josh
Prescott has played very well for most of the season making big plays with arm and timely ones with his legs. Josh Allen, his counterpart, has done the same but at a less explosive level. Allen must outplay Prescott here as a dual threat for the Bills to have a chance. He should have great confidence going in after his two best games of the season against Miami and Denver. Prescott was off in the rainy conditions of New England, but he will be ready to make amends in Dallas.
Bills’ run defense
The Bills have been vulnerable at times against teams committed to the running game — see the loss to Philadelphia. The Cowboys should want to get Ezekiel Elliott rolling again so he can set up the fine play-action passing opportunities for Prescott. The Bills’ secondary and pass rush are solid, but the run and Prescott’s ability to buy time against a front that can be worn down can really help the Cowboys.
Garrett in the line of fire
Jerry Jones expressed his disappointment with Garrett and the current coaching staff in a way he quite has never had before after the frustrating loss to the Patriots. The Cowboys need to win and keep pushing toward the NFC East title because a loss might raise the ire of Jones to the point of no return for Garrett.
Stat that matters
The Bills have the No. 3 pass defense in the NFL, averaging giving up 184.3 points per game. The Cowboys still have the No. 1 passing offense in the NFL even after last week’s rough game at the Patriots, averaging 303.5 points per game. But the Bills have played only one team currently in the top half of passing offense in the NFL, the Patriots, and they lost that game.
Cowboys vs. Bills prediction
The Bills have not been really tested on the road this season. Their wins so far are against the Dolphins (twice), Jets, Broncos, Bengals, Titans, Redskins and Giants. The Cowboys have lost big games at home to the Packers and Vikings, and are looking for a “quality win” themselves after only beating the Giants (twice), Eagles, Redskins, Dolphins and Lions.
Something has to give here, and go with the home team to roost on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys are the more talented team overall and desperate will kick as they play hard, well and clean for Garrett in a sudden must-win situation. Prescott and the offense tend to perform much better at home, the Bills lack the firepower with Allen to match in what could turn into a grinding field-goal fest in th end.
Cowboys 26, Bills 16